Between data centers sprouting up like daisies and formerly affordable DDR4 memory finally fading into the sunset, we’re looking at some rough times ahead for memory and storage prices—and that’s before general economic turmoil and tariffs complicate things even further. Now, one major flash hardware producer’s CEO is even warning that we could be looking at a decade-long shortage.
Said CEO is Pua Khein-Seng of Phison Electronics. Phison doesn’t get a lot of visibility in the consumer space, but it’s one of the planet’s biggest manufacturers of NAND memory controllers. (Pretty good odds that there are Phison chips in the gadget you’re using to read these words.) In an interview with Tech Taiwan, Pua predicted that we’ll be in a full-on memory shortage next year, with data centers made for increased capacity in general and “AI” products in particular creating an industry-wide dearth of hardware. That’s especially true as large data centers transition from conventional hard drives (the last major holdout for the decades-old tech) to solid-state drives.
That would inevitably push the price for flash-based memory and storage higher, and by extension, raise prices on more or less all consumer electronics, including phones, PCs, and graphics cards. Even devices with mostly “invisible” integrated electronics, like monitors or headphones, would be affected. With a wind-down of investment following the pandemic, immediately followed by surging demand for the AI bubble, Pua estimates that we could see a shortage that lasts as long as a decade, according to TechPowerUp.
I should note that the CEO of a major memory controller supplier isn’t exactly an unbiased source of information on the matter. Phison could be trying to spur investment or account for some rocky times in its own future. But speaking as someone who’s definitely on the consumer side of this equation, I don’t see anything that’s obviously wrong about a shortage prediction. Most other analysts are already predicting higher prices in the short term, and it’s certainly possible that the shortage could be sustained for multiple years.
The biggest thing that might change that is if the “AI” bubble bursts… which might create some bigger problems for consumers, like finding a place to live or something to eat.
