2025 will be the year of Apple Intelligence (again)

As a sports fan, I’m besieged with ads for gambling these days. Sports media is full of experts that are happy to claim they know who’s going to win and who’s going to lose, but of course, if they really had all the answers they’d be rich and not flogging their predictions.

What I’m saying is, nobody knows anything. And while I’ve been covering Apple since time immemorial (okay, the 1990s) and predicting in this space for a decade, let’s just say that nobody’s perfect.

Still, it’s fun to think about the blank canvas that 2025 offers us. Here are my predictions for what’s to come in the next year. As always, no wagering.

The easy bet

The simplest prediction one could make about Apple in 2025 is this: just as 2024 was the year of Apple Intelligence, so too will 2025 be the year of Apple Intelligence. Apple’s crash project to add AI models to all aspects of its software got a brand name in 2024, but the work is far from over.

Apple will spend the first half of 2024 making good on its remaining unfulfilled promises from WWDC 2024, and then in June it’ll make a whole new year’s worth of promises. That’s as close as anyone can come to a stone-cold mortal lock of a prediction. It will take years for Apple to take its foot off the gas when it comes to Apple Intelligence, because it’s at least a few years behind some of its competition.

It’s also not much of a prediction to say that Apple Intelligence will continue to be the same mishmash of useful and useless features as it has been up to now. I’m not sure if anyone in the tech industry really knows which AI features will be the ones that blossom into game changers and which ones will be duds. So for now, everyone just keeps throwing spaghetti against the wall. Apple’s got several pots full of spaghetti still on a boil.

And yet, after all of this, by the end of 2025 Siri still won’t be as good as it should be.

The software story

All of Apple’s OS updates in 2025 will be primarily focused on, you guessed it: Apple Intelligence. The company will need to ship its promised features that leverage its on-device index of your personal information and take advantage of App Intents to control other apps. My guess is that those releases will be extremely limited in terms of scope and functionality. But they’re something to build on, and I’d be surprised if next June there aren’t major announcements to extend the ability for Apple Intelligence to learn about your personal data and control your apps.

Ever since June Apple has been making noises about supporting third-party AI tools other than ChatGPT, but there haven’t been any announcements. In 2025, I expect that the company will sign up at least one partner beyond OpenAI, and maybe even more than that. Support for additional third-party chatbot providers will probably debut in the fall with an early version of iOS 19 and macOS 16.

Wearables, Home and Accessories

None of Apple’s ancillary products got Apple Intelligence this year, but 2025 might be when we first see some signs of that. visionOS 3 will probably add in support for Apple Intelligence, and I think there’s a decent chance that a new HomePod Mini will include explicit support for Apple Intelligence.

The real surprise debut of the year will be a new home product, which (as has been reported by Mark Gurman at Bloomberg) will be a small, iPad-like display running a custom Apple-build OS that’s designed to be a home controller and ambient display. I like the idea that it’ll be modular, with an optional speaker dock or a mount to hang it on your wall. And it’ll obviously also bring Apple Intelligence to the party. What will it be called? I have no idea, but I’ll put down 20 quatloos on… “the new HomePod.” (Sorry, old HomePod!)

Those searching for additional hardware will be disappointed. There won’t be a new visionOS device in 2025, nor will there be an Apple answer to Meta’s Ray-Ban glasses–call ’em AirPods Specs–even though there should be.

Other hardware

It’s a good thing that Apple Intelligence is all consuming, because it’s shaping up to be a fairly quite year for Apple’s core hardware product lines.

Yes, in the spring we’ll get an M4 MacBook Air, but it’s unlikely to be different in any appreciable way beyond getting an improved webcam. We’ll also likely see M4-powered updates to the Mac Pro and Mac Studio, though I’m anticipating that they won’t be particularly exciting ones. Similarly, M5 MacBook Pros will debut in the fall because that’s what’s required, but they’re unlikely to offer improvements over this year’s models beyond the chip itself.

Similarly, the iPad seems primed for a dull year after a year full of excitement. A new low-end model will likely be introduced, but that’ll hardly move the needle.

On the iPhone, things will similarly be static for two of Apple’s three phone models. Maybe the iPhone 17 will pick up a higher-refresh rate screen and the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max will see slight camera improvements–always a safe bet. The big news will be the replacement for the iPhone Plus, in the form of the iPhone 17 Air.

The iPhone 17 Air will cost less than $1000 and will be the thinnest iPhone ever, but with enough technical compromises to infuriate a whole bunch of tech nerds. (It’ll still sell better than the iPhone Plus or Mini ever did.)

Foundry

Service is our business

At some point in 2025, Apple’s total profit from its services will surpass its profit from products. While it’s not fair to say that Apple’s going to lose its soul at that moment–the fact is, most of Apple’s services revenue is directly tied to its success selling hardware–it’s worth pondering just how important the services budget line has become to Apple.

Apple will continue to invest in its services in 2025, of course. But I think those investments will be incremental in nature–a big film here, a bunch of prestigious TV shows there, maybe some new Fitness or News content. But while Apple will be rumored to be in the running for a major chunk of sports rights or even a movie studio, in the end I don’t think it will buy anything that large. (If Apple buys Disney or Warner Bros. in 2025, well, we’re all going to look back on this column and laugh.)

Speaking of services revenue, two of Apple’s biggest revenue drivers in the category are browser referral money from Google and revenue from the App Store. I think it’s safe to assume that the Google deal and Apple’s App Store policies will continue to be under assault from regulators in 2025. I’ll also predict that the company will continue its policy of fighting attempts to change its business model tooth and nail.

Will a record fine be levied against Apple in 2025? I wouldn’t bet against it, but as I warned you earlier, it’s probably not smart to bet on this stuff. There’s no such thing as a sure thing.