iPhone sales are important! For Apple’s bottom line, that’s about as obvious as a dog-bites-man statement can get.
This year, early reports suggest sales of the iPhone 17 might be a little better than expected, but there’s no accompanying surge for the iPhone Air. What does it all mean?!
On one level, not a lot: Apple’s still going to sell a zillion iPhones, in the end. The profits will roll on. But if you’re a sicko like me (and I will remind you that you are reading this column at a site devoted to Apple-related minutiae), you are probably interested in the details.
They’re meaningful for a few reasons. If Apple’s expectations don’t match reality, it suggests the company doesn’t fully understand its own customers. If one model really kills it, it potentially impacts overall iPhone revenue (for better or for worse). And perhaps most importantly for most iPhone users: How the world reacts to iPhone models affects Apple’s plans for future iPhone models.
An iPhone six-pack
When the iPhone launched, it was singular. (Also Cingular, but that’s a different story.) There was only one iPhone, and so it remained for several years.
Things are very different now. In the last year, Apple has introduced five new iPhone models: the 16e, 17, 17 Pro, 17 Pro Max, and Air. When we think about the iPhone, one of the most important things to keep in mind is that it’s not a product, it’s a product line.
Apple gets lots of advantages from selling five new iPhones (the 16 is still on sale too, making it a proper six-pack). Since the 2017 introduction of the iPhone X, Apple has released increasingly expensive phones while continuing to offer cheaper models, allowing it to maintain and even grow its overall iPhone customer base while getting more and more money from people for whom money is no object when it comes to buying a new iPhone.
What’s amazing about the last eight years is that Apple still doesn’t seem to have found the upper limit. Maybe next year, when the company will almost undoubtedly break the $2,000 barrier, we’ll find out. Or maybe not?! The sky’s the limit on the high end for Apple, which is great for corporate profits, but it’s important that phones like the 16e and 17 also exist for the rest of us.
Apple
A transitional year?
There’s no denying that this year, the iPhone 17 is actually the biggest winner among all iPhones in terms of getting new features. The features mostly aren’t new, but they’re new to that model and price point–most notably that always-on ProMotion display. Eventually, every cutting-edge feature becomes standard.
The worry is that the iPhone 17 is so good now that more people will buy it and fewer people will splurge on the iPhone 17 Pro. I’m not too concerned. Apple has had years to build brand loyalty around the iPhone Pro. (I’ve talked to so many people who just never, ever consider the non-Pro iPhones when they’re ready to buy, because they want the best.)
Also, Apple is continuing to withhold one killer feature from the non-Pro models: that third, telephoto camera. It’s tough to give it up when you’re used to it. I tried last year, because the Ultramarine iPhone 16 was so tempting. I missed the always-on display, yes, but the lack of a proper zoom camera was also quite painful.
Here’s what I don’t think gets enough consideration when we’re talking about iPhone sales: Different people naturally gravitate toward different product slots. As I said, iPhone Pro buyers mostly know they’re iPhone Pro buyers. iPhone non-Pro buyers are the people who are a lot less enthusiastic about buying a new iPhone, don’t see the value in spending a few hundred bucks more on the Pro models, and will be more than happy with the standard iPhone, or even the iPhone 16e.
I do think a few people will see the increased $1,099 starting price of the iPhone 17 Pro, look at the bulk of pro features that have moved to the 17, and opt to save themselves money. That could become a trend over time… except that Apple always seems to have new pro features ready to go to replace them at the high-end, doesn’t it? Let’s check in next year.
A matter of time
The problem with reports about early iPhone sales isn’t that they’re untrue, but that they’re out of context. The type of people who rush into Apple stores in mid-September to buy new iPhones are not the same people who are buying iPhones the rest of the year.
You and I, as keen observers of Apple, think of the last three or four months of the year as iPhone season. And yes, the company’s fiscal first quarter always generates the most iPhone revenue: 36 percent of all iPhone revenue in the last decade has come during the holiday quarter. (Though I’ll point out that some of that is actual holiday sales, which come later in the quarter and are not made to people desperate to buy the new iPhone in week one.)
But nearly a quarter of iPhone revenue in the last decade has been booked in the company’s second quarter, mapping to the first three months of the calendar year. And the next two quarters, stretching from April through September, are responsible for the other 40 percent.
My point here is that iPhone sales are not as seasonal as you think. And I would bet that the sales mix of iPhone models also changes during the year. Surely more iPhone Pro customers are attuned to the first weeks of the release. And who in the world is buying an iPhone mere weeks before the next models are released? The answer is: people who just want a new phone, probably because theirs broke, and they don’t care beyond that.
Earlier this year, I went to an Apple Store in California’s central valley and helped two family members buy new iPhones. Both were replacing very old iPhones. One of them bought a 16 Pro, because she wanted the zoom lens to take the best pictures. The other, upgrading from an early iPhone SE, was happy to get an iPhone 16e. The store was packed with people buying iPhones, entirely off-cycle.
Five new phones a year is a lot, and apparently, that new folding model next year might make six. But there are some rumors out there suggesting that Apple might split the iPhone release schedule in two, releasing Pro models and the folding phone in the fall, and the non-Pro models in the spring. (The launch of the 16e might have been a test of this approach. Apple also sometimes offers new colors of iPhone in the spring to entice new buyers.)
I think it’s a pretty great idea. Buyers of the iPhone Pro will rush to get the latest model, but more casual buyers don’t really care when the iPhones come out, because the existence of new models isn’t what drives them. They buy when they want, for the most part, and not before.
Where’s the Air?
The big question for this cycle is, what’s going to happen to the iPhone Air? The previous phones in its place in the product line, the iPhone mini and iPhone Plus, apparently didn’t sell well enough to continue. Early reports on the Air suggest it’s also seeing soft sales.
I guess we’ll have to wait and see, but I’m inclined to believe that the iPhone Air, with its lack of cameras and a heavy lean toward design, will have broader appeal over the course of the entire year. The fall is, in many ways, for iPhone Pro users who will scoff at most of the specs of the iPhone Air. But over time, as iPhone Airs get out into the world, people will see them and feel them, and I think the Air will get a lot of sales pick-up from word of mouth.
Britta O’Boyle / Foundry
Imagine a casual iPhone user who pops into an Apple Store in March to replace their cracked iPhone 15 and picks up the iPhone Air. I think that thin and light design is going to sell a lot of phones, in the end. Just maybe more in February and May, not September and October.
Of course, Apple refuses to release any figures about the sales of specific iPhone models, though it does cite other surveys and drop the occasional tidbit in its quarterly financial results. Over the next year, we’ll just have to keep our ears open and see how the new iPhones are received in the market. And remember to be patient. We’re all focused on the new iPhones now, but two-thirds of this year’s iPhones won’t sell until 2026. It’s a long game.
