Apple keeps winning today by betting on tomorrow

Apple, the beleaguered tech giant so far behind in the AI race that it had to ask a rival for help, nevertheless announced startlingly healthy financial results last week, thereby suggesting that, in the tech sector as in Hollywood, nobody knows anything. Maybe customers, who happily spent a record $85 billion on iPhones in late 2025, don’t care about AI as much as we thought.

Aside from the eye-watering numbers, however, the most striking thing about Tim Cook’s triumphant earnings call may have been his unwillingness to dwell on the present. Acknowledging that Q1 2026 was “in so many ways a remarkable quarter for Apple,” he went on to stress that the company is “excited for all the opportunities we’ll have in the year ahead to deliver innovations that have never been seen before, and enrich the lives of users every step of the way.”

We can debate whether Apple’s priority is truly enriching the lives of its users (the increasing presence of in-software advertising suggests it is at least equally interested in enriching shareholders). Still, it’s certainly true that 2026 is a big year and an inflection point for Apple’s future well-being. One might almost describe the situation as sink-or-swim if the company’s prosperity didn’t make that sound so ridiculous. Right now, Apple isn’t so much swimming as floating above the ocean in an airship made of money.

At the risk of repeating the mistakes that led so many of us to underestimate Apple’s prospects during the most recent quarter, one important factor will be the success or failure of the Apple/Google AI partnership. Yes, Apple Intelligence has been a disappointment so far. No, the vast majority of iPhone buyers don’t seem to care… yet. But Apple can’t rely on that remaining the case forever.

While AI’s importance–not to mention the value of AI companies–has undoubtedly been exaggerated by interested parties, the technology is filtering through to the mainstream and becoming more of a priority to the average smartphone customer with every passing month. If Gemini-powered Siri, expected to launch within weeks, is a success, then that feeds directly into the success of the iPhone. If it’s a failure… well, people will still buy iPhones, as we’ve seen. But at some point, having no AI tech worth the name will start to eat into those sparkling revenue figures. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

Talking of iPhones, we’re also looking forward to a pair of key hardware launches in 2026: the iPhone Fold and the iPhone 17e. And these too represent areas where, incredibly, Apple could achieve even more than it has already.

While secondary sources suggest that the iPhone 17 and 17 Pro models did the heavy lifting for Apple last quarter, the company will be hoping for a bigger contribution from other parts of the range. The iPhone 16e and iPhone Air were, in very different ways, unappealing options because they made so many compromises without offering much in return; the 16e is a mid-market rather than a true budget phone, and the Air’s superficially impressive slimness has little actual functional benefit. Don’t expect the 17e to be cheaper, but it’s likely to have a better feature set for the same money. And the Fold should give us a usefully radical design.

These are just the tip of the iceberg for a year that could, as I’ve written elsewhere, be a wild ride for Apple fans and shareholders alike. I certainly won’t say that it’s make or break, but it does represent a huge opportunity that the company will not wish to squander.

Because Apple knows quarters like this aren’t guaranteed to last. The iPhone 17 was an excellent smartphone, and it’s not surprising that lots of people bought it. But it’s excellent in a very traditional way. In the years to come, customers will have different priorities: they may be looking for the ability to run AI, or a foldable, or something far cheaper, or more customisable, or with a better battery life. They may be looking for an entirely different class of device, such as smart glasses or an AI pin.

Apple doesn’t know the future, but it knows the future is uncertain. That’s why it spends so much of its resources trying to prepare for the opportunities of tomorrow, rather than congratulating itself on successfully solving the problems of today.

Although there were probably some congratulations last week. And deservedly so.

Welcome to our weekly Apple Breakfast column, which includes all the Apple news you missed last week in a handy bite-sized roundup. We call it Apple Breakfast because we think it goes great with a Monday morning cup of coffee or tea, but it’s cool if you want to give it a read during lunch or dinner hours too.

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