It’s time for Schrödinger’s Apple doom, where the company is not “doomed” but ehhhhh sorta a little doomed?
Writing for The Houston Chronicle, Dwight Silverman wants to have his anti-Apple doom headline and eat his Apple doom cake, too:
“Apple isn’t doomed, but it should change its ways amid mounting pressure” (Tip o’ the antlers to Glenn Fleishman.)
This is a rare instance in which the title actually gets it more right than the article.
“Apple is doomed” has become such a cliché that the Macalope, a longstanding column in the venerable Macworld publication, has used it repeatedly over the years to sneer at those who think the company is hurtling towards its demise.
Sneer?! I mean…there has been some sneering. A smattering of sneering. A thin veneer of yeah, okay, fine.
But over the past year, the company has stumbled badly on multiple fronts…
The Macalope is gonna stop you there. Not because you’re wrong about Apple stumbling, but because that is a load-bearing “but” you have there. Not that the Macalope doesn’t like a load-bearing but, but this one seems to suggest that maybe the company is “hurtling towards its demise.” It is not.
Here’s an example. Just in the past few days, Apple stock has climbed back up to about where it was a year ago. That is a year before Apple’s troubles with Apple Intelligence, before a judge ruled against its anti-steering policy, and before huge tariffs (if not as giganto-huge as President Capslock said they would be). Despite all this, investors think it is in just a good a position as it was a year ago.
Stumbles are only devastating for the little people. Apple has built itself into such an unassailable position that it can probably Drunken Master its way along for many years to come and still be absolutely fine.
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IDG
The gang in Cupertino has long had a reputation for being able to pull themselves out of a steep dive…
The Macalope’s not sure Apple’s had a “steep dive” since the 1990s but, yeah, they have a good rep. The second half of this sentence gets us to the point.
…but what’s ahead may require truly masterful flying.
The current U.S. presidential administration has put the company in unprecedented territory, both from an economic standpoint and one of public perception. Meanwhile, Apple has started to draw the ire of some of its biggest fans for a variety of reasons.
In the Apple-watching community, [John Gruber’s] screed was a turning point, [former Apple employee and tech analyst Michael] Gartenberg said, because here was a booster who was no longer boosting.
Silverman is not wrong about Gruber’s criticism being a red flag, and his voice is not the only one challenging the company these days. While the Macalope would describe himself as having been more anti-Apple doom cult over the years than simply pro-Apple, it is fair to say that his feelings about the company have changed of late as well. Why? Well, let him tell you.
Hey, you asked.
- Apple and Tim Cook’s decision to cozy up to the current presidential administration is, to put it bluntly, a real disappointment. After years of being pretty stridently apolitical, picking this moment in history to get friendly with politicians is a real look.
- Apple does not make small phones anymore. (Don’t act surprised, you knew the Macalope was going to bring this up.) Okay, maybe Apple is right. Maybe it just doesn’t make economic sense for it to make small phones. It seems it would at least be a usability issue, but regardless, the net effect is that from this customer’s view, Apple doesn’t remotely make the size of phone he wants to buy anymore.
- Apple’s recent product development has been focused on things most users don’t care about. The Vision Pro is a fine effort, but it is simply a non-event for most Apple customers because they can’t afford one. Meanwhile, very few users wanted Apple Intelligence in the first place, certainly not the parts that Apple’s been able to deliver. Apple Intelligence is a product for Wall Street, not Apple customers.
- Apple’s stubbornness in trying to claw back its anti-steering policy–a policy that has always been wrong–now seems petty, small, and just absurd for the richest company in the world.
All this said, the Macalope still likes the company’s products better than pretty much anyone else’s. At least for now.
Ultimately, however, Apple still holds all the cards. It rakes in the most money, has the highest margins, and a generational space ark full of cash. It is more than likely going to continue to be just fine for quite some time, despite all these woes.
Honestly, it might actually be better if Silverman were right, that all the headwinds affecting the company right now really did present an imminent danger to the company. Because if Apple were in more trouble than it currently is, maybe it’d listen more.
